Forecasting of Irrigation Water Requirements in Wasit Province under Climate Change Conditions using LARS-WG and CROPWAT-8 Models
Abstract
Agriculture is the largest consumer of surface and groundwater globally. Due to climate change, the demand for irrigation water will shift. In Iraq, climate change involves increased temperatures and decreased rainfall. In this study, the maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall for Al-Kut station during the reference period from 1990 to 2019 were downscaled to the period from 2030 to 2050 using the LARS-WG model, based on the HadGEM2-ES climate model and the RCP4.5 scenario. Additionally, irrigation requirements for Wasit Governorate were calculated using the CROPWAT-8 program for both the reference and future periods. The results indicate that the annual average of maximum and minimum temperatures will rise by 1.44°C and 1.24°C, respectively. This will lead to an increase in the annual evaporation rate from 2721.3 mm/year to 2848.2 mm/year. Similarly, the demand for irrigation water is projected to increase by about 36.7 m³/s due to these updated climatic factors. Therefore, it is essential to adopt more efficient irrigation methods to reduce pressure on water resources, which are also declining due to climate change.
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