Forecasting of Future Irrigation Water Demand for Salah-addin Province under Various Scenarios of Climate Change
Keywords:
LARS-WG, CROPWAT, Irrigation, Climate change, Salah-addinAbstract
Irrigation water demand of a crop is largely dependent on climate conditions. The impact of climate change on the demand of irrigation water needs more investigation. This paper aims to analyze the future trend in irrigation demand under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5-Based climate changes scenarios for Salah-addin Province, Iraq. The climate data recorded during 1990-2019 was projected to 2080 with 20 years of time steps using LARS-WG model. The current and future weather data were inserted into CROPWAT-8. The results showed that the climate of Salah-addin Province tends to become hotter and drier by year 2080 due to increased average temperature by 5.72, 10.67 and 17.82% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Consequently, the evapotranspiration tends to increase by 4.6, 8.6 and 12.9% 5.72, 10.67 and 17.82% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the projected precipitation showed negative trend with -0.2, -1.7 and -1.9% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Therefore, the annual irrigation water demand for studied area is expected to increase from 112.0 m/s under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Results indicated that irrigation demand should be adapted by improving irrigation efficiency for sustainable management water resources.
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